It was 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
