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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still